A recovery in Bitcoin’s price may improve mining economics, but CoinShares expects publicly traded miners that have already shifted toward artificial intelligence infrastructure to remain focused on AI and high performance computing.
In its Q2 2026 Bitcoin mining report published September 15, CoinShares said the financial advantage of AI infrastructure, combined with long term contracts and the high cost of reversing existing decisions, makes a broad return to Bitcoin mining unlikely.
“A BTC recovery is unlikely to reverse the AI transition.”
The report, authored by CoinShares researcher Luke Nolan, comes as the Bitcoin mining sector faces higher production costs and historically weak mining revenue. At the same time, access to electricity and data center capacity has become increasingly valuable as demand for AI computing infrastructure grows.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- CoinShares estimates AI and high performance computing can generate about $1.5 million in annualized profit per megawatt, compared with roughly $500,000 from Bitcoin mining.
- At least 35 EH/s of capacity is scheduled to leave publicly listed miners.
- Core Scientific paid $41.9 million to cancel a 15 EH/s mining hardware agreement.
- Bitcoin miners had an average ex tax cash cost of about $75,500 per BTC in Q2.
- Bitcoin ended Q2 at approximately $58,400, leaving the listed mining sector below cash breakeven in aggregate.
- CoinShares expects miners that retained flexibility to benefit if Bitcoin’s mining economics improve.
AI ECONOMICS ARE KEEPING MINERS FROM TURNING BACK
The strongest argument for the AI pivot is the difference in potential returns. CoinShares estimates that AI and HPC infrastructure currently produces approximately $1.5 million in annualized profit per megawatt for the companies covered by its research. Bitcoin mining generates roughly $500,000 per megawatt by comparison. That gap gives miners a financial reason to redirect power, land and existing facilities toward AI workloads even when Bitcoin prices recover. The transition is also becoming harder to reverse because several operators have already entered long duration agreements with AI and HPC customers. Some contracts run for 15 years or more, giving companies a predictable infrastructure business that does not depend directly on Bitcoin’s market price.
Core Scientific’s decision to pay $41.9 million to terminate an agreement covering 15 EH/s of next generation mining hardware provides another indication of the scale of the shift. Rather than expanding mining capacity, the company accepted a significant cancellation cost as it redirected resources toward data center infrastructure.
SIGNIFICANT HASHRATE SET TO LEAVE LISTED MINERS
CoinShares estimates that at least 35 EH/s of computing capacity is scheduled to leave the publicly listed mining group. Keel, formerly known as Bitfarms, stopped mining on June 29. IREN has said its transition away from mining will be substantially complete by December 31, 2026, while Cipher is expected to continue reducing its mining operations as it develops its data center business. TeraWulf has also retired mining buildings as it expands its HPC operations.
The shift does not mean Bitcoin mining is disappearing. Instead, CoinShares expects mining capacity to become more concentrated among operators that have retained the ability to respond to changes in Bitcoin’s price and mining profitability.
Riot, MARA, HIVE and Bitdeer are among the miners CoinShares identifies as having greater flexibility to allocate capacity between mining and other computing opportunities.
BITCOIN MINING ECONOMICS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
The move toward AI accelerated during a difficult quarter for Bitcoin miners. CoinShares calculated an average weighted ex tax cash cost of approximately $75,500 to produce one Bitcoin among the listed miners during Q2. Bitcoin ended the quarter at about $58,400. The monthly average hash price, which measures mining revenue generated from computing power, also fell to a record low of $27.70 per PH/s per day in June.
Mining conditions have improved since then. CoinShares said Bitcoin’s recovery toward $77,000 lifted hash price to approximately $38 per PH/s per day, helping most operators move back above cash breakeven. A sustained Bitcoin rally could therefore make additional mining capacity attractive again. But CoinShares does not expect that improvement to persuade companies with long term AI commitments to abandon those contracts.
POWER ACCESS IS BECOMING MORE VALUABLE
The competition between Bitcoin mining and AI computing is also being shaped by electricity and grid availability. CoinShares reported that the U.S. interconnection queue contains roughly 2,600 GW of proposed capacity, exceeding the country’s total installed generation capacity. Data centers account for a large portion of the demand, including 87% of ERCOT’s 410 GW large load queue.
This has increased the value of mining sites that already have access to power. For miners, the infrastructure that was originally built to support Bitcoin can therefore become an asset for another type of computing business. However, converting mining facilities to AI grade infrastructure can require substantial additional investment. CoinShares estimates conversion costs at roughly $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, compared with about $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt for Bitcoin mining infrastructure.
CONCLUSION
Bitcoin’s recovery has improved the economics of mining, but CoinShares expects the industry’s AI transition to continue. The distinction is between miners that are still flexible and those that have already committed their infrastructure to AI and HPC. For the former, a sustained Bitcoin price increase could support renewed mining investment. For the latter, long term contracts, infrastructure investments and stronger AI economics make a return to Bitcoin mining less attractive.
The result could be a more concentrated mining sector, with fewer publicly listed companies dedicating their power exclusively to Bitcoin while others build businesses around AI computing and data center infrastructure. CoinShares’ latest assessment is that a higher Bitcoin price can improve mining profitability, but it may not be enough to reverse decisions that have already reshaped the industry’s infrastructure strategy.
