Según un nuevo informe del banco de inversión Jefferies, la incertidumbre regulatoria en torno a uno de los proyectos de ley sobre criptomonedas más seguidos en Estados Unidos podría convertirse en una importante fuente de volatilidad del mercado en las próximas semanas.
Although the CLARITY Act has already cleared the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan backing, Jefferies believes the legislation still faces significant procedural and political hurdles before it can become law. The firm argues that the compressed legislative calendar, combined with unresolved policy disagreements, could keep investors on edge throughout the remainder of the summer.
El informe se publica en un momento en que los mercados de activos digitales siguen observando atentamente a Washington en busca de señales de que el Congreso pueda finalmente establecer un marco regulatorio integral que rija las criptomonedas.
Puntos Clave
- Jefferies says the CLARITY Act faces a challenging path through the U.S. Senate despite clearing the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support.
- Polymarket data shows the probability of the bill becoming law by the end of 2026 has fallen from 70% in mid May to 48%, reflecting growing uncertainty over its passage.
- The investment bank believes the legislation could shape the outlook for crypto related stocks such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish, as well as the broader digital asset market.
- If passed, the bill would establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, potentially accelerating tokenization, crypto custody, staking, lending, and additional spot crypto ETF approvals.
- Jefferies warns that further delays could prolong regulatory uncertainty and discourage traditional financial institutions from expanding blockchain related services.
Senate Timeline Leaves Little Room for Delays
Jefferies noted that lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before Congress begins its August recess. During that period, senators must complete several critical steps before the bill can reach President Donald Trump’s desk.
Estos pasos incluyen impulsar la legislación mediante votaciones de procedimiento, conciliar las propuestas contrapuestas del Senado, coordinar las diferencias con la versión del proyecto de ley de la Cámara de Representantes y obtener la aprobación final del Congreso.
Si bien la Ley CLARITY ya fue aprobada por el Comité Bancario del Senado con una votación bipartidista de 15 a 9, Jefferies advirtió que la aprobación del comité representa solo una etapa de un proceso legislativo mucho más largo.
Andrew Moss and other Jefferies analysts warned that failing to move the legislation forward before the recess could delay final passage until next year, particularly if the political balance in the Senate changes after the upcoming midterm elections. Market expectations have already shifted in response to those uncertainties. According to Polymarket data cited in the report, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of 2026 has declined to 48%, down from approximately 70% in mid May.
Por qué es importante la Ley CLARITY
The legislation is widely viewed as one of the most important mercado crypto structure bills currently under consideration in the United States.
De aprobarse, establecería límites jurisdiccionales más claros entre la Comisión de Bolsa y Valores (SEC) y la Comisión de Comercio de Futuros de Productos Básicos (CFTC), al definir cuándo los activos digitales deben regularse como valores o como materias primas.
For years, overlapping regulatory interpretations have created uncertainty for empresas de criptomonedas, financial institutions, and investors.
Jefferies cree que una mayor claridad en la normativa animaría a los bancos, gestores de activos, casas de bolsa y bolsas a ampliar su oferta de activos digitales con mayor confianza.
El informe señala que la aprobación del proyecto de ley podría acelerar el crecimiento en varias áreas de la industria de las criptomonedas, incluyendo la custodia de activos digitales, los servicios de staking, los activos del mundo real tokenizados, los préstamos basados en blockchain y las iniciativas de tokenización más amplias.
El banco de inversión también espera un marco legal más claro que respalde la creación de fondos cotizados en bolsa de criptomonedas adicionales, más allá de Bitcoin y Ether, al tiempo que mejora el entorno para las empresas de infraestructura de criptomonedas que estén considerando salir a bolsa.
Delay Could Slow Institutional Adoption
Jefferies argues that postponing the legislation would have the opposite effect. Although federal agencies, including the SEC, CFTC, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, have introduced guidance that has improved the operating environment for digital asset firms, the bank noted that agency guidance can be revised or reversed by future administrations.
Sin una legislación permanente, muchas instituciones financieras tradicionales podrían seguir mostrándose cautelosas a la hora de asignar capital a iniciativas de blockchain o de lanzar nuevos productos de activos digitales.
El informe sugiere que la incertidumbre prolongada podría retrasar las inversiones en proyectos de tokenización, plataformas de custodia digital y servicios de préstamos institucionales hasta que el Congreso proporcione un marco legal más sólido.
Crypto Stocks Could See Increased Volatility
Beyond digital assets themselves, Jefferies expects the legislative process to influence several publicly traded companies with significant exposure to the cryptocurrency industry. The report specifically highlighted Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH) as companies whose share prices could respond to developments surrounding the legislation.
For Circle, the bank believes the outcome is more nuanced. While regulatory clarity would likely strengthen the broader stablecoin market over time, Jefferies noted that certain provisions within the legislation could alter competitive dynamics for stablecoin issuers and payment providers.
El banco de inversión también señaló que el desafío competitivo a largo plazo de Circle puede provenir menos de la regulación en sí y más del aumento de la competencia a medida que los bancos, las empresas de tecnología financiera y las empresas de pagos expanden sus propias iniciativas de criptomonedas estables.
Stablecoin Debate Remains a Key Obstacle
One of the primary issues complicating negotiations involves stablecoin regulation. Lawmakers continue debating provisions governing yield bearing stablecoins, anti money laundering safeguards, and ethics requirements. These disagreements have slowed legislative progress despite broad bipartisan recognition that the United States needs a more comprehensive digital asset framework.
Jefferies cree que estas cuestiones sin resolver seguirán siendo fundamentales en las negociaciones, mientras los legisladores intentan que el proyecto de ley avance en el Senado antes de que el calendario legislativo se vea aún más saturado.
Conclusión
Jefferies believes the CLARITY Act represents one of the most significant regulatory developments facing the cryptocurrency industry this year. While the legislation has advanced further than many previous crypto bills, the remaining legislative process leaves little margin for delay.
For investors, the coming weeks may prove decisive. Passage of the bill could accelerate institutional adoption by providing long sought regulatory certainty for digital assets. Failure to advance the legislation, however, could extend the uncertainty that has shaped much of the industry’s relationship with traditional finance, leaving crypto markets and related equities vulnerable to continued volatility as lawmakers work toward a final decision.
