Bitcoin’s long-term holders are showing renewed confidence after months of reducing their positions, according to the latest on chain data from Glassnode. The blockchain analytics firm reported that long-term investors have shifted from net distribution back to net accumulation, a development that has historically appeared during periods of market weakness before broader sentiment begins to improve.
The change comes as Bitcoin trades around the $60,000 level amid continued macroeconomic uncertainty and persistent outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds. While institutional investors remain cautious, the latest on chain data suggests experienced holders are quietly increasing their exposure.
Punti chiave
- Glassnode says Bitcoin long-term holders have moved from net distribution to net accumulation.
- The 30 day net position change has turned positive, with long-term holders adding between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC.
- Accumulation is strongest among wallets holding less than 1 BTC and those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC.
- The largest Bitcoin whales, holding more than 10,000 BTC, remain broadly neutral.
- Despite stronger on chain accumulation, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record sustained net outflows, highlighting a split between institutional and long-term investor sentiment.
Long-Term Investors Begin Rebuilding Positions
Glassnode’s latest report shows a meaningful shift in behavior among Bitcoin holders who typically keep their coins for extended periods. After several months of selling into the market, the 30 day net position change has turned positive, with long-term holders now accumulating between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC.
Historically, this transition has often appeared during periods when prices weaken and short-term traders reduce exposure. Long-term investors tend to use these phases to gradually build positions rather than react to short-term volatility.
Sebbene il ritmo degli acquisti rimanga inferiore a quello dei precedenti cicli di accumulazione del mercato rialzista, il ritorno a un'accumulazione netta positiva suggerisce che la fiducia stia iniziando a riprendersi sotto la superficie.
"Sebbene sia troppo presto per parlare di una vera e propria fase di accumulazione, il ritorno di acquisti persistenti a lungo termine fornisce un segnale incoraggiante del fatto che la fiducia sta iniziando a ricostruirsi sotto la superficie", ha scritto Glassnode.
Buying Activity Spreads Across Multiple Wallet Sizes
The renewed demand is not limited to long-term holders alone. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score shows buying activity becoming more widespread across several wallet categories.
The strongest accumulation is coming from the smallest holders, with wallets holding less than one Bitcoin recording trend scores between 0.8 and 0.9. Investors controlling between 100 and 1,000 BTC are also showing similarly strong accumulation.
Wallets holding between 1 and 100 BTC continue to add coins at a moderate pace, while addresses controlling between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC remain less aggressive. The largest whale addresses, holding more than 10,000 BTC, continue to show largely neutral behavior.
Glassnode ritiene che questa ampia partecipazione da parte di diversi gruppi di investitori sia incoraggiante, sebbene l'assenza di un significativo accumulo da parte delle "balene" suggerisca che il mercato non sia ancora entrato in una fase di accumulo pienamente confermata.
Institutional Investors Remain Defensive
Mentre dati blockchain points to improving conviction among long-term holders, institutional sentiment tells a different story.
Spot americano ETF Bitcoin have continued to experience sustained net redemptions, with June marking the weakest month since the products launched. According to market data, the funds recorded roughly $4.5 billion in net outflows during the month, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for approximately $3.55 billion over nine consecutive trading sessions.
Glassnode ha osservato che gli investitori istituzionali rimangono in una posizione difensiva nonostante la recente debolezza del prezzo del Bitcoin.
"La persistenza dei riscatti suggerisce che gli investitori istituzionali mantengono una posizione difensiva, riducendo l'esposizione anziché intervenire per assorbire la recente debolezza", si legge nel rapporto.
This divergence highlights two very different groups of investors. While long-term holders are steadily absorbing supply, many institutional participants continue reducing exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Macro Conditions Continue Shaping Sentiment
Analysts say the cautious institutional outlook remains closely tied to broader economic conditions. Higher Treasury yields, expectations for tighter monetary policy, and competition for investment capital have all weighed on demand for risk assets in recent weeks. These factors have contributed to continued ETF outflows even as on chain indicators begin improving.
Secondo gli analisti di mercato, i futuri dati macroeconomici e le decisioni di politica monetaria delle banche centrali determineranno probabilmente se gli investitori istituzionali torneranno a investire insieme agli investitori a lungo termine.
For now, the two segments of the market are sending different signals. Blockchain data points toward improving conviction among experienced investors, while traditional investment flows continue reflecting caution.
Why This Metric Matters
Long-term holder activity has become one of the most closely watched indicators in Bitcoin market analysis because these investors typically have lower turnover and stronger conviction than short-term traders.
As more Bitcoin moves into long-term storage, fewer coins remain readily available for sale on exchanges. Over time, this can improve supply dynamics, particularly when new demand enters the market.
However, analysts caution that accumulation alone does not guarantee higher prices. Bitcoin’s performance will continue to depend on macroeconomic conditions, institutional participation, market liquidity, and overall investor sentiment.
Conclusione
Glassnode’s latest data suggests Bitcoin’s long-term holders are once again using market weakness as an opportunity to accumulate rather than sell. The return to positive net accumulation, combined with broad buying activity across several wallet sizes, points to improving confidence among experienced investors.
Even so, the market remains divided. Institutional investors continue pulling money from spot Bitcoin ETFs, while the largest whale addresses have yet to show strong buying activity. Whether this early accumulation develops into a broader market recovery will likely depend on improving macroeconomic conditions and a reversal in institutional fund flows over the coming weeks.
