Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency market could process as much as 4 trillion rubles, or approximately $46.4 billion, in trading volume during its first year under the country’s new digital asset framework, according to a forecast from Sberbank.
Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the bank expects between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in cryptocurrency trading to move through regulated exchanges during the first 12 months. The estimate comes as Russia’s new crypto market rules take effect on September 1, opening regulated trading to both qualified and non-qualified investors.
Despite the size of the projection, Sberbank expects regulated platforms to capture only a fraction of Russia’s existing cryptocurrency activity, with much of the market likely to remain outside domestic licensed exchanges.
Key Takeaways
- Sberbank expects regulated Russian crypto exchanges to process up to 4 trillion rubles, or $46.4 billion, during their first year.
- Russia’s overall cryptocurrency transaction volume is estimated at roughly 18 trillion rubles annually.
- SberCIB expects about 20% of existing crypto activity to initially move to regulated exchanges.
- Non-qualified investors can buy approved cryptocurrencies subject to a 300,000 ruble annual limit per intermediary and investor testing.
- Sberbank plans to expand into crypto custody, wallets and digital asset-backed lending as the new framework develops.
Sberbank Expects Gradual Shift to Regulated Exchanges
Popov cited Finance Ministry data estimating cryptocurrency transactions in Russia at about 50 billion rubles per day. At that pace, annual activity would reach approximately 18 trillion rubles.
SberCIB Investment Research expects only around one-fifth of that activity to migrate to regulated platforms during the first year. The bank projects regulated exchange volume between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles initially. By 2028, it expects the figure to increase to between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles before reaching approximately 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.1 billion, in 2029.
The projections remain estimates rather than government targets. Popov also acknowledged that a substantial portion of Russian crypto activity is likely to continue through platforms outside the country’s regulated market.
New Crypto Rules Take Effect September 1
The new framework establishes formal rules for cryptocurrency trading through approved intermediaries, including brokers, exchange services and asset managers. Non-qualified investors can purchase eligible cryptocurrencies after completing required investor testing. Purchases are capped at 300,000 rubles annually through each intermediary.
Qualified investors must also meet applicable eligibility and testing requirements but can access crypto assets without the same monetary purchase ceiling. The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT among the assets that can be made available to ordinary investors, based on criteria including liquidity, market capitalization and established pricing history on international markets.
Russia’s framework does not, however, legalize cryptocurrency as a general domestic payment method. Using digital currencies to pay for goods and services inside the country remains prohibited. The legislation provides exceptions for certain cross-border transactions, including settlements under foreign trade contracts between Russian residents and non-residents.
Existing Crypto Firms Face Registration Deadlines
The transition to a fully regulated market will take time. Existing crypto service providers have until July 1, 2027, to comply with registration requirements, meaning Russia’s regulated market will not necessarily operate at full capacity immediately after the September launch.
Other parts of the framework are also being phased in through 2027. The transition period could help explain Sberbank’s expectation that most existing crypto activity will remain outside regulated exchanges during the first year.
How aggressively authorities enforce registration requirements after the transition deadlines could also influence how quickly trading moves toward licensed platforms.
Sberbank Prepares Crypto Wallet and Lending Services
Sberbank is positioning itself to participate directly in the newly regulated market. The lender plans to integrate a cryptocurrency wallet into its Sber and Sber Investments applications and develop digital asset depository infrastructure by early December. is also preparing lending products secured by cryptocurrencies.
Popov said Sberbank intends to accept Bitcoin, Ether and USDT as collateral as regulatory conditions allow. The lender already has experience with crypto linked financial products, having offered qualified investors structured bonds and digital financial assets tied to Bitcoin and Ether since 2025.
“We prepared for this in advance, and we already have practical experience working with cryptocurrency.”
Popov said Sberbank plans to adapt its existing products as the regulatory provisions take effect and gradually expand its crypto offerings.
Conclusion
Sberbank’s $46.4 billion forecast highlights the scale of cryptocurrency activity Russia hopes to bring into its regulated financial system.
However, the projection should not be interpreted as a guaranteed first-year trading figure. With roughly 18 trillion rubles in estimated annual crypto activity already taking place in the country, SberCIB expects regulated platforms to initially capture only about 20% of the market.
The first year will therefore provide an early test of whether Russian investors shift from offshore and other existing trading channels to licensed domestic platforms. Sberbank’s own plans for crypto wallets, custody and lending also show that major Russian financial institutions are preparing to compete for that activity as the new framework takes effect.
